Reputation systems: characterising and evidencing the mass use of analytic modelling to covertly evaluate and influence human behaviour. Volume 1.
In a FOIA request it appears Essex Police deny and then go on to confirm the use of predictive policing in England:
So what do these reputation systems look like? I have found an example of what appears to be a 'risk score' which meets the description, there are likely many other systems which use technology like this.
In this image we can see an example of a 'harm score' which belongs to a member of the public, the score fluctuates.
I believe this is a clear example of predictive analytics being used to form a reputation system. This image shows risk categories.
These may be different to the score in Fearless Futures.
Essex police have said the following regarding Fearless Futures:
'The project aims to prospectively assess those at heightened risk of becoming involved in serious/weapon [knife] enabled violence, using proximate risk factors available in police crime record data.
The data model tool will assign a probability/risk score against individuals, referred to herein as the ‘Fearless Futures Cohort’.
This project uses police-derived (factual) data to best predict whether an individual is on the trajectory towards using a knife to commit an act of serious violence. This analysis will allow a multiagency approach to provide support services at an individual level with the principal objective of assisting their exit from criminality. Any disruption to their predicted trajectory would positively impact not only the individual but the wider community also... The tool will assign a probability score against individuals. This uses the following information:
• Age
• Gender
• Drug Warning Marker
• No. of criminal associates/co-accused
• Prior suspects for violence with injury, possession of weapons and drug offences
• Prior victimisation for violence with injury
• Venue district last/current/most recent offence...
All data subjects held on Essex Police’s investigation management system, Athena, with a home address in the Essex policing area, will have their personal data processed, however, a very small percentage will meet the criteria to score high enough to appear on the Fearless Futures Cohort. This processing will be completed by the Performance Analysis Unit, under the supervision of the Data Scientist... Essex Police and the Probation Service (and other Competent Authorities) derive their legal basis to disclose, receive and process personal data where the processing meets the definition of law enforcement purposes:
The prevention, investigation, detection or prosecution of criminal offences and the execution of criminal penalties, including the safeguarding against and the prevention of threats to public security.
The project does not intend to process ‘sensitive data’ – however, should it become strictly necessary to achieve the specified purpose the processing must meet a condition from Schedule 8 (DPA 2018), or explicit consent from the data subject must be obtained.
Please note that strictly necessary in this context means that the processing has to relate to a pressing social need, and you cannot reasonably achieve it through less intrusive means.
Any partners involved in this project are likely to find their lawful basis within Article 6 (Lawfulness of Processing) of GDPR basis:
1(e) Processing is necessary for the performance of a task carried out in the public interest or the exercise of official authority vested in the controller. With the condition for processing criminal offence personal data within Schedule 1 of the DPA 2018 specially, Para. 10 Preventing or detecting unlawful acts.
Article 13(1)(c)Article 14(1)(c)'
In an article on the use of such technologies in the UK it was confirmed 14 police forces use these technologies.
"At least 14 police forces in the UK are also known to have used or considered predictive policing technologies, with campaigners arguing that “we cannot be sure that these programmes have been developed free of bias and that they will not disproportionately adversely impact on certain communities or demographics”."
https://bylinetimes.com/2023/03/28/lack-of-transparency-over-police-forces-covert-use-of-predictive-policing-software-raises-concerns-about-human-rights-abuses/#:~:text=At%20least%2014%20police%20forces,on%20certain%20communities%20or%20demographics%E2%80%9D.
I believe fearless futures is an attempt to use AI and machine learning to justify stop and search, through the use of these risk scores, heat maps and so on. Police even admit to intervening before crimes occur based on this technology. I believe the aim is to develop servilance capabilities similar to that of the Chinese Social Credit System, only with less transparrency.
So what is the technology used?
1. SPSS modeler by IBM
2. Qliksense
How has this type of technology been used:
This video shows how predictive policing technologies and procedures have been used in the past.
I believe these technologies could be used to covertly influence the population without them realising, by causing them stess when their behaviour is not optimal, and removing the stressor when optimal behaviour is achieved. This has been done by the Chinese Communist Party of China through their social credit score.
Science. police.UK states that:
'Stopping crime before it happens has numerous benefits for individuals and communities, and means that those needing support can be given it. The model is named Fearless Futures, as it aims to give people alternative futures away from crime and violence.'
This refers to 'stopping crime before it happens' which implies that predictive analytics are used, it also is just another way of saying 'predictive policing'.
[Image shows heatmap]
In the article by the independent, New documentary Pre-Crime shows how Minority Report-esque police techniques are already a reality, it is claimed that one man was approached at his home by police who warned him he was on a list. The man believed this was due to his associates.
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